July single-family home sales improved 3% from last year, but there’s an important distinction between more activity and a true seller recovery.
75% of single-family homes sold below their original list price, nearly unchanged from 76% in July 2025.
Here’s what the numbers are telling us:
• 12% sold above original list price
• Above-list sales had a median closing price of $448,990
• Roughly 40% of above-list sales were under $400,000, showing competition remains strongest in more attainable price ranges
• 14% sold at list price, reinforcing that accurate pricing still matters
• Above-list sales were concentrated most heavily in Phoenix, followed by San Tan Valley, Surprise and Mesa
Mortgage rates remain in the high 6% range, keeping monthly payments elevated and limiting how far buyers can stretch. At the same time, contract activity is improving, year-over-year inventory is lower and the pace of price declines has moderated.
That creates a market that is better than last year, but still highly sensitive to price.
The contrast with 2021 is significant.
In July 2021, 63% of single-family homes sold above their original list price. Extremely low mortgage rates, historically limited inventory and intense buyer competition created an entirely different environment.
Today’s market rewards a different strategy:
Price accurately. Prepare the property well. Understand the competition. And pay attention to what buyers are actually willing to pay.
If you’re curious how these numbers apply to your specific neighborhood or home, feel free to reach out.
